Assessing the US / Israel regime change plan for Iran

Comparisons from similar campaigns in the region

US naval assets are moving in. US bases within striking distance of Iran are being evacuated. Trump has signaled his willingness to ridicule his biggest supporters and contradict his own intelligence director to do Israel’s bidding. All of this adds up to: it is extremely likely that the US will very soon be attacking Iran on Israel’s behalf. The objective of the war is the removal of the Iranian government and its replacement by either a chaotic, perpetual civil war situation (chaos) or a pliant collaborator regime that will allow Israel to keep genociding with impunity (the main priority of the Western elite is genocide now).

A few decades ago, the US set out to “take out” seven countries. The list was Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran.

Wesley Clark explains the plan to take out seven countries

The 1996 Clean Break: A strategy for securing the realm document was written for Netanyahu by a group of American strategists (the realm to be secured was Israel, not America). At that time, their slogan was “anyone can go to Baghdad. Real men go to Tehran.”

To assess the chances that the US/Israel will succeed in Iran, consider the past decades of US/Israel operations in the region and the factors for success and failure.

Successes

Jordan. Defeated by Israel in the 1967 war. Working for Israel since. Main factor for US success: Jordan is small, exposed geographically to Israeli attack, and dependent on US/Israel sponsorship.

Libya. Subject to a sudden regime change effort in 2011 that had extremely rapid success. Chaotic civil war situation since. Main factors for US success: Libya is also a small country (6.3 million in 2011) with very limited military assets.

Egypt. Defeated by Israel in the 1967 war. Made peace with Israel after the 1973 war. Working for Israel since. Main factor for US success: Sadat’s decision to collaborate with the US/Israel even as the military was having success in 1973 and afterwards. Sadat’s successors have followed his pattern.

Assassination of Sadat in 1981

Syria. Defeated by Israel in the 1967 war and 1973 (betrayed by Sadat). Maintained a military deterrent capacity despite a decades-long campaign to overthrow the government. Survived an intensified overthrow effort starting in 2011 and only succumbed in 2024. Working for Israel since 2024. Main factors for US success: Turkey’s decision to join the overthrow effort in 2024 and Russia’s partial alliance, balancing of support for Syria against ISIS with Russia’s neutrality in the Syria-Israel conflict allowing Israel to destroy Syria’s military gradually so that Turkey/ISIS could finish it off.

Iraq. Part of the coalition that lost to Israel in 1967. Sponsored by the West to attack Iran 1980-1988. Tried to link withdrawal from Kuwait in 1990 to Israeli withdrawal from the occupied West Bank and Gaza (“linkage”) at which point the US/Israel decided on his ouster. Bombed in 1990/1, much military capacity destroyed, sanctioned for 12 years with hundreds of thousands of lives lost, finally overthrown in 2003 and occupied by the US since then. Main factors for US success: surprise attack in 1990 when Saddam Hussein thought the US was an ally; Saddam Hussein never seriously tried to fight the US in 1990 nor in 2003; the sanctions, inspections, and no-fly zone imposed after 1990 ensured that Iraq could not rebuild a significant military capacity.

Failures

Yemen. Intervening through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, the US and UK bombed Yemen’s cities and attempted to starve the population through siege to try to achieve regime change for nearly a decade beginning in 2015. After Yemen struck Saudi oil facilities in 2022, a ceasefire materialized. Yemen then intervened in 2023 to try to stop Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza, and the US Navy attacked Yemen again. Yemen had some successes against US naval vessels, after which a ceasefire materialized between the US and Yemen in 2025. Main factors in US failure: Yemen’s ability to absorb the damage and its ability to strike US targets (Saudi oil facilities in the first instance and the US navy in the second) enabled it to establish deterrence.

Afghanistan. The West has sought a pre-eminent position in Afghanistan since the British Empire in the 1830s. The US intervened (beginning in 1979) in an alliance with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and China to destroy the Soviet-backed Afghan government. This US intervention was a failure until Russia (no longer the Soviet Union) ceased supplying the Afghan government in 1991, which collapsed in 1992. The Pakistan-backed Taliban won the civil war and gained power in 1996, and was overthrown in turn by the US in 2001. After a US occupation of 20 years, the Taliban swept the US from power (probably with Pakistan’s blessing) in 2021. Main factor for US success in 1992 - Russia’s betrayal of its Afghan ally. Main factor for US success in 2001 - Pakistan’s decision to work with the US occupation. Main factor for US failure in 2021 - Pakistan’s decision to no longer work with the US occupation.

The analogy with Iran

How can we use these examples to assess the US chances in Iran? Factors include size, population, military capacity, how devastated the target country has been by previous sanctions and wars, the strength of the pro-imperialist constituency in the target country, and the strength and number of neighbours willing to work with the US on a regime change campaign.

Size. With 90 million people, vast terrain with mountains, a very capable missile force, a potentially huge army, and potentially very powerful alliances, Iran is the biggest regime change war the US has ever attempted.

Military capacity. Even after all the sanctions on Iran, even after the surprise attack by Israel on June 13, the country retains the ability to hit Israel and to hit US assets when the US joins.

Devastation by sanctions. Iran has been sanctioned for decades and has suffered great economic harm as a result, like other countries being softened up for regime change. But because of its size and location, it has been able to continue to develop, despite all of the setbacks.

Pro-US elements. The US/Israel have assassinated many Iranian leaders; Iran has a substantial liberal, pro-Western elite bloc (like Russia and China do); there are small Western-sponsored separatist movements among Iranian communities; there’s a substantial, western-sponsored ISIS-like terrorist group called MEK; and the old monarch’s son has declared his readiness to take the throne back in the event of a US/Israeli success. The equivalent of a Jolani (a manufactured terrorist leader who can be put on the throne after a successful regime change) could come from one of these quarters; but the equivalent of a Sadat (someone who gets to the very top of the state and then conspires to disarm and subordinate his own state to imperialists) is a very rare gift to imperialists and happens very rarely (it could still happen and is the main way that the US could win, but it’s unlikely).

Neighbours. Most of Iran’s neighbours are not likely to join the regime change effort. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan won’t. Azerbaijan and Turkey could cause issues if the war goes long. Iraq could be a platform for US attacks on Iran, but Iran has allies there as well. Across the Persian Gulf are several US proxies, but they also have targets that are valuable and indefensible from Iranian retaliation, which makes the situation potentially costly for the US/Israel.

Getting past the Iranian military will be (already is) a challenge like none the US/Israel has yet faced, a long, world-transforming war with a highly uncertain outcome. The only alternative the US has is to wait for an Iranian version of Sadat (or Gorbechev) who will voluntarily dismantle his own state. Such a person would have to be in power already, not waiting to be installed.