“postcolonial Syria has been a major check on US/Israel’s ambitions, as Patrick O’Higgins documented in his article “Gunning for Damascus”, and has paid a heavy price”-Pro-Resistance Westerners, including me, need to re-evaluate how they define victory. The conditions are not the same as for empires, e.g. unconditional surrenders, body counts, conquest. Prof. Podur’s article here shows that the enormous sacrifices of the resistance have not been in vain. I’m no expert on Central or South American history, but it just seems like the situation in West Asia is definitely bad but could be worse. Imagine being Cuban or Salvadoran or Guarani, to go back a few centuries…
This isn’t the most relevant information, but here’s just one example of Syrian help that I just came across: “Hezbollah has been able to utilize support from Syria in its escalation-counterescalation warfare with the Israeli military. For example, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) noticed in the early 1990s that Hezbollah forces had begun to use remotely detonated explosive devices in southern Lebanon. Guerrillas would plant these bombs along the roads and detonate them as IDF patrols drove by. In response, the IDF began to detonate the bombs early, using the same radio frequency as Hezbollah. Rather than give up the tactic, Hezbollah went back to Syria to obtain a weapons upgrade. The result was a remote-detonated bomb with scrambling devices as well as a bomb detonated by a computer that provided multiple-frequency transmissions” (Rabasa, Angel, et al “Hezbollah and Hamas” Beyond Al-Qaeda: Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe, RAND Corporation, 2006, p. 13)
Rand Corporation…the enemy knows the importance of Syria, so it’s beyond annoying when anti-Assad people don’t get it and yet claim to support resistance. Thanks for your work and also stating that point in your podcasts.
Syria also helped Iran during the Iran-Iraq war - if I remember correctly, the only state to do so (arguably, frenemy Israel helped with arms too) when the US/Europe/Gulf states had piled on the side of Iraq. Iran was so isolated and backed in a corner that it sent 14-year-olds to run through minefields to clear them. Robert Fisk describes how both Iranian and Iraqi adult male soldiers were traumatized by that in "The Great War for Civilization."
You never forget the hand that helped when you were that desperate. All those claims of chemical weapons being used by Assad against civilians in the 2010s, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif going around, repeatedly explaining that Iran would never help any entity that used chemical weapons because Iranians suffered Iraq's chemical weapons attacks and it remains a visceral red line. That White Helmet stories were propaganda to serve the dismantling of Syria. That the West glossed over the crimes of its bloodsoaked ruthless dictator allies as it screamed about Assad's dictatorship.
There are some who think Iran's new reformist government is trying to curry favour and make deals with the West - I don't think those analysts have been paying attention. It's the same people who are back in power, and they will give no more benefit of the doubt. The fact is, the Axis of Resistance faces an incredibly complicated balancing act. Few Arab regimes want the Axis to succeed as it will thoroughly discredit them that a coalition undergirded by a Shi'a, non-Arab state stepped in and supported Palestinians where they did not. And unfortunately, many in the region, including internally, can be bought, so the betrayals are and will continue to be many.
I don't believe that Russia is willing to let Erdogan have a direct veto over their warm water port nor Iran let Erdogan get his fingers directly into Lebanon and Iraq. This will work out, unfortunately the grass(people) will be stomped on for some long, indeterminate time. Sigh.
The USA promised not to advance NATO Eastward in return for the reunification of Germany (c.1990) then the break up of the USSR occured in 1991. This should have left Russia surrounded by friendly and like-minded countries if you don't count the state of Alaska.
Why should Putin or Russia - or any country for that matter - trust the USA not to go back on their promises? It seems that every 4 years the new President feels no obligation to uphold the promises of their predecessor. The only exception appears to be Israel who are given everything the President(s) promise, and more, regardless.
I think Canada, Mexico and Panama are about to find out just how worthless the USA's promises really are.
The young guy from Aleppo who is in the US, who was a guest on the latest The Grayzone Live episode was very informative but overly pessimistic, imho. I get the impression that he doesn’t comprehend that Russia and Iran cannot afford to let the Syrian government fall or the country get even more Balkanised. Prof. Marandi appearing on various channels is also worth listening to, but occasionally I think he is overly optimistic. The best analysis and in-depth up-to-date info comes from Syriana Analysis, as I mentioned above. Listening to Justin and these people, I think that the vehement anti-Assad line reflects decades of full-on propaganda outside Syria and people on the ground do not take such a simplistic view.
I’m also confused on the division. I asked my mother’s friend from Syria “Do you prefer Assad or the terrorists?” He’s even Alawite and he said neither. This was awhile ago. I don’t know. I don’t worship Assad, I just want him to kill all the invaders and help Hezbollah. Good point above on Hamas, I didn’t know that. If I was Assad though, I’d look at Gaddafi’s fate and then unleash everything at my disposal. What can the West say that they haven’t already? I wouldn’t make any apologies either. Marouf, Podur, and Syriana have all helped me a great deal to understand Syria but I’m still catching up.
“postcolonial Syria has been a major check on US/Israel’s ambitions, as Patrick O’Higgins documented in his article “Gunning for Damascus”, and has paid a heavy price”-Pro-Resistance Westerners, including me, need to re-evaluate how they define victory. The conditions are not the same as for empires, e.g. unconditional surrenders, body counts, conquest. Prof. Podur’s article here shows that the enormous sacrifices of the resistance have not been in vain. I’m no expert on Central or South American history, but it just seems like the situation in West Asia is definitely bad but could be worse. Imagine being Cuban or Salvadoran or Guarani, to go back a few centuries…
This isn’t the most relevant information, but here’s just one example of Syrian help that I just came across: “Hezbollah has been able to utilize support from Syria in its escalation-counterescalation warfare with the Israeli military. For example, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) noticed in the early 1990s that Hezbollah forces had begun to use remotely detonated explosive devices in southern Lebanon. Guerrillas would plant these bombs along the roads and detonate them as IDF patrols drove by. In response, the IDF began to detonate the bombs early, using the same radio frequency as Hezbollah. Rather than give up the tactic, Hezbollah went back to Syria to obtain a weapons upgrade. The result was a remote-detonated bomb with scrambling devices as well as a bomb detonated by a computer that provided multiple-frequency transmissions” (Rabasa, Angel, et al “Hezbollah and Hamas” Beyond Al-Qaeda: Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe, RAND Corporation, 2006, p. 13)
Rand Corporation…the enemy knows the importance of Syria, so it’s beyond annoying when anti-Assad people don’t get it and yet claim to support resistance. Thanks for your work and also stating that point in your podcasts.
Thanks for this crucial analysis.
Syria also helped Iran during the Iran-Iraq war - if I remember correctly, the only state to do so (arguably, frenemy Israel helped with arms too) when the US/Europe/Gulf states had piled on the side of Iraq. Iran was so isolated and backed in a corner that it sent 14-year-olds to run through minefields to clear them. Robert Fisk describes how both Iranian and Iraqi adult male soldiers were traumatized by that in "The Great War for Civilization."
You never forget the hand that helped when you were that desperate. All those claims of chemical weapons being used by Assad against civilians in the 2010s, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif going around, repeatedly explaining that Iran would never help any entity that used chemical weapons because Iranians suffered Iraq's chemical weapons attacks and it remains a visceral red line. That White Helmet stories were propaganda to serve the dismantling of Syria. That the West glossed over the crimes of its bloodsoaked ruthless dictator allies as it screamed about Assad's dictatorship.
There are some who think Iran's new reformist government is trying to curry favour and make deals with the West - I don't think those analysts have been paying attention. It's the same people who are back in power, and they will give no more benefit of the doubt. The fact is, the Axis of Resistance faces an incredibly complicated balancing act. Few Arab regimes want the Axis to succeed as it will thoroughly discredit them that a coalition undergirded by a Shi'a, non-Arab state stepped in and supported Palestinians where they did not. And unfortunately, many in the region, including internally, can be bought, so the betrayals are and will continue to be many.
An excellent summary.
Would you consider having Kevork Almassian as a guest on your channel?
He's great - Syriana Analysis, and he's on a lot of other podcasts these days too and youtube channels.
Thank you for the excellent historical summary and update. Especially the maps.
Turkey needs to get out of Syria period. I wouldn't trust anything their leaders say.
Very good and impressively concise. Thank you
I don't believe that Russia is willing to let Erdogan have a direct veto over their warm water port nor Iran let Erdogan get his fingers directly into Lebanon and Iraq. This will work out, unfortunately the grass(people) will be stomped on for some long, indeterminate time. Sigh.
Perhaps Russia traded Syria for Ukraine?
Is it posible isreal funded hts as it funded hamas once upon a time to one day assist isreal to fight iran.
The USA promised not to advance NATO Eastward in return for the reunification of Germany (c.1990) then the break up of the USSR occured in 1991. This should have left Russia surrounded by friendly and like-minded countries if you don't count the state of Alaska.
Why should Putin or Russia - or any country for that matter - trust the USA not to go back on their promises? It seems that every 4 years the new President feels no obligation to uphold the promises of their predecessor. The only exception appears to be Israel who are given everything the President(s) promise, and more, regardless.
I think Canada, Mexico and Panama are about to find out just how worthless the USA's promises really are.
Good analysis
(fyi, from my observations)
The young guy from Aleppo who is in the US, who was a guest on the latest The Grayzone Live episode was very informative but overly pessimistic, imho. I get the impression that he doesn’t comprehend that Russia and Iran cannot afford to let the Syrian government fall or the country get even more Balkanised. Prof. Marandi appearing on various channels is also worth listening to, but occasionally I think he is overly optimistic. The best analysis and in-depth up-to-date info comes from Syriana Analysis, as I mentioned above. Listening to Justin and these people, I think that the vehement anti-Assad line reflects decades of full-on propaganda outside Syria and people on the ground do not take such a simplistic view.
I’m also confused on the division. I asked my mother’s friend from Syria “Do you prefer Assad or the terrorists?” He’s even Alawite and he said neither. This was awhile ago. I don’t know. I don’t worship Assad, I just want him to kill all the invaders and help Hezbollah. Good point above on Hamas, I didn’t know that. If I was Assad though, I’d look at Gaddafi’s fate and then unleash everything at my disposal. What can the West say that they haven’t already? I wouldn’t make any apologies either. Marouf, Podur, and Syriana have all helped me a great deal to understand Syria but I’m still catching up.